Friday, March 18, 2016

The Pundit Class's New Talent

It must uncomfortable to be political pundit this year. Given all their "respectability" and self-contradictory acumen it must be very uncomfortable. After all if anyone had been listening 10 months ago the primary contests would be wrapped up by now and we would already be eyeball deep in a Bush vs. Clinton slug fest. Funny thing about that.  The voters have a different idea. Sanders just keeps nipping at Hillary's heals like a rabid little dog and Trump just keeps getting stronger with each new attack that gets thrown at him.

Even as these self-appointed experts get proven wrong at every turn that will not stop the from coming up with a new prognostications that, according to them, will set the political universe back on the desired path. The latest being that Trump still doesn't have a chance to wrap up the nomination and that a brokered or broken convention is all but certain. That some how the Lone Ranger will appear to save the day and the neo-con's fat from the fire.

So let's look at the numbers shall we.

2473 = total number of delegate.
1237 = Delegates needed to secure the nomination.
1440 = number of Delegates already awarded in the primary and cacaus races.
695 = number of Trump Delegates already won.
424 = number of Cruz Delegates already won.
166 = number of Rubio Delegates already won.
144 = number of Kasick Delegates alread yu won.
12 = number of Delegates awarded to other candidates who have dropped out.
542 = Delegates Trump needs = 52% as  remaining available Delegates.
873 = Delegates Cruz needs = 79% of remaining available Delegates.
1093 = Delegates Kasich needs = 106% of remaining available Delegates.

Clearly Kasich remains on the race as a spoiler with vain hopes of being selected as some sort of Cinderella nominee in a brokered convention.

Cruz's chance that he can hold Trump below 52% or even 22% of the remaining Delegates seems pretty thin at this point.

Hence my conclusion that the pundit class has developed a new talent, whistling past the graveyard.

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