Tuesday, January 28, 2020
Outbreak! It's More Than Just Germs.
This flu virus outbreak ctisis in China is far from over and it's not going to be just a public health crisis, although that's going to be a major element. Watch Africa. Chinese penetration into Africa is massive. If the virus has been transmitted there and if the R0 transmission rate goes above three, given the appaling lack of health care, urban centers in sub sahara Africa could well be devastated.
Recall also what Mark Twain said about history rhyming. In the 1960's China was in the midst of launching an invasion of India when a massive crop failure forced them to retreat for fear of food riots and an insurection that could have toppled the government. Now in the midst of a geopolitical expansion they are faced with both a contracting economic picture and a potential pandemic disease outbreak that could lead to civil unrest that could again threaten to destabilize or topple the government. This is the last thing the polit-bureau needs piled on top of their concerns about the unrest in Hong Kong spreading to the mainland.
This shit has all the potential to get really ugly really fast. Just where things progress from here only time will tell. Look for neighboring countries to follow North Korea's example in closing their borders and halting air traffic to and from China.